Lukashenko’s strategy today is simple: to hold power for as long as possible at all costs. It is implemented in various tactical steps. Among other things, Lukashenko is trying to gather supporters and arm them, at the same time splitting up the protesters as if it was an insignificant, external force-driven group, as well as “cleansing” the information space – Lukashenko’s regime’s strategy and tactics comments Valery Matskevich, Belarusian politician, public figure and a member of the Coordinating Council.
This publication is the 2nd part of the 4 video commentary series “What’s going on in Belarus? Observations from the insider.”, in which, at the invitation of the Centre for East European Policy Studies (CEEPS), for publication on Tvnet.lv and Rus.tvnet.lv, a Belarusian politician, public figure and a member of the Coordinating Council Valery Matskevich tells about the current situation in Belarus.
“Lukashenko’s tactical task is to suppress street protests at all costs. Provocations, intimidation and sabotage are used for this purpose. Events are simulated. Recently, for example, there was a case when some explosive device was allegedly thrown in the direction of siloviki. But there is video and evidence that this has actually been done by a provocative group of saboteurs. Siloviki have seen that. The video taken with the phone showed who threw it. There are many such exposures,” Matskevich tells.
Further explaining Lukashenko’s tactics, Matskevich emphasizes: “Lukashenko, as the outgoing dictator, has the task to create disagreements in civil society. He wants to find a part of the society that would be ready to do dirty things together with siloviks and sometime instead of them. Lukashenko has even offered to arm some volunteer units. He is ready to gather even criminals to give them weapons in order to suppress public protests. “
Lukashenko is also trying to change the law to punish dissidents even more severely, Matskevich points out. “If previously the penalty in the administrative process was a maximum of 15 days and about 200 fine units, now the legislation is being changed quickly so that people can be detained for up to 30 days,” Matskevich explains.
“Another tactical step taken by Lukashenko is to try to neutralize potential competitors that could help Russia create a new political reality. As you know, Lukashenko has always tried to maintain a monopoly on relations with Russia, so that Russia does not have the opportunity to find someone else for cooperation. Now Lukashenko is actively trying to counter Russia so that Russia, independently of Lukashenko’s presence, does not work with any political forces, including from Lukashenko’s nomenclature, to construct the mechanisms of the new reality in Belarus, ” explains Matskevich.
Find out more about the events in Belarus in the 2nd video (in Russian with Latvian subtitles) commentary prepared by Valery Matskevich.
The fisrt comment is available here.